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Legion Dynamo vs Angust Nazran — Second League - Group 1 2020

Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
5/24/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Legion Dynamo47%
×Draw28%
Angust Nazran25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legion Dynamo
1.32
Angust Nazran
0.87

Legion Dynamo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 41 away

creates per match

Legion Dynamo
1.52
Angust Nazran
0.63

allows per match

Legion Dynamo
1.11
Angust Nazran
1.12

finishing

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par
Angust Nazran+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legion Dynamo ↓

Angust Nazran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Legion Dynamo or draw
75%
Legion Dynamo or Angust Nazran
72%
Draw or Angust Nazran
53%

Winning margin

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
22%
Angust Nazran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
73%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
38%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
15%
Angust Nazran 1+ goals
58%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
22%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
66%
Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legion Dynamo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 89 matches

Angust Nazran away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legion Dynamo attack 1.52 + Angust Nazran defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Angust Nazran attack 0.63 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legion Dynamo scores more
47%
level
28%
Angust Nazran scores more
25%

Legion Dynamo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Legion Dynamo 1–0 Angust Nazran

Legion Dynamo beat Angust Nazran 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Makhachkala.