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Angust Nazran vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
9/28/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angust Nazran31%
×Draw30%
Legion Dynamo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angust Nazran
0.98
Legion Dynamo
1.14

Legion Dynamo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 89 away

creates per match

Angust Nazran
0.79
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Angust Nazran
0.89
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw
61%
Angust Nazran or Legion Dynamo
70%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
69%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+
11%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals
62%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
26%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
8%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
68%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
32%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
44%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Angust Nazran scores more
31%
level
30%
Legion Dynamo scores more
39%

Legion Dynamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angust Nazran vs Legion Dynamo

Angust Nazran and Legion Dynamo drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Rashida Ausheva in Nazran'.