Legia Warszawa 1–2 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nieciecza

E. Krasniqi 73'

A. Trubeha 90'

K. Kubica 23'

11/9/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Wojska Polskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Legia Warszawa52%

×Draw23%

Nieciecza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.27

Legia Warszawa

1.88

Nieciecza

1.27

Legia Warszawa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.79

creates per match

1.39

1.15

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

1.79

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

1.15

Nieciecza

1.96

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Legia Warszawa-0.10scores less

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

74%

Legia Warszawa or Nieciecza

77%

Draw or Nieciecza

48%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

29%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

85%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

56%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

29%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

72%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

36%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

67%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.79 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

52%

level

23%

Nieciecza scores more

26%

Legia Warszawa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

K. Kubica

Nieciecza · M

8.7

Match Events

23'

K. Kubica↳ A. Kasperkiewicz

46'

R. Kurzawa← W. Jakubik

46'

J. Jimenez← M. Fassbender

54'

Juergen Elitim

57'

R. Augustyniak← D. Szymanski

57'

B. Kapustka← J. Elitim

58'

Kamil Zapolnik

62'

Bartosz Kopacz

65'

J. Zewlakow← W. Urbanski

65'

M. Rajovic← A. Colak

66'

S. Guerrero← K. Kubica

67'

Sergio Guerrero

67'

A. Trubeha← K. Zapolnik

73'

E. Krasniqi

79'

Rafał Kurzawa

83'

R. Boboc← D. Hilbrycht

89'

A. Jedrzejczyk← K. Urbanski

90'

A. Trubeha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LegiaNieciecza

Overview

70%Possession30%

23Total Shots13

1.38Expected Goals (xG)1.48

11Corners2

13Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots13

6On Target7

11Off Target3

6Blocked3

13Inside Box6

10Outside Box7

Passing

70%Possession30%

614Total Passes264

529Accurate Passes191

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on November 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Kubica (23'), E. Krasniqi (73'), A. Trubeha (90').

Legia Warszawa controlled possession (70%) and registered 23 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Warsaw.

Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza