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Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
T. Pekhart 72', 37'
M. Wieteska 45'
Josué 26'
A. Putivtsev 90'
3/15/2022EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Legia Warszawa52%
×Draw23%
Nieciecza26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.88
Nieciecza
1.27

Legia Warszawa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.79
Nieciecza
1.39

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.15
Nieciecza
1.96

finishing

Legia Warszawa-0.10scores less
Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
74%
Legia Warszawa or Nieciecza
77%
Draw or Nieciecza
48%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
29%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
85%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
56%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
29%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
72%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
36%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
67%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.79 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
52%
level
23%
Nieciecza scores more
26%

Legia Warszawa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
JosuéLegia WarszawaLegia Warszawa · M
8.7

Match Events

20'
Maciej Rosołek
23'
L. Rose← M. Nawrocki
26'
Josué
37'
T. Pekhart↳ P. Wszołek
44'
Artem Putivtsev
45'
M. Wieteska↳ Josué
46'
K. Śpiewak← D. Kocyła
46'
S. Štefánik← T. Poznar
62'
J. Çelhaka← Rafael Lopes
62'
E. Muçi← M. Rosołek
71'
S. Bonecki← P. Wlazło
71'
M. Mešanović← A. Polyarus
72'
T. Pekhart
75'
P. Sokołowski← Josué
75'
A. Jędrzejczyk← M. Johansson
84'
V. Tusha← A. Radwański
89'
Bartosz Slisz
90'
A. Putivtsev↳ M. Mešanović

Possession

57%Legia

Shots

16Legia

Pass accuracy

51%Legia

Statistics

LegiaNieciecza
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots5
6Corners5
19Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots5
8On Target1
4Off Target4
4Blocked0
13Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
478Total Passes352
402Accurate Passes282
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa 4–1 Nieciecza

Legia Warszawa beat Nieciecza 4-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 15, 2022.

Goals: Josué (26'), T. Pekhart (37', 72'), M. Wieteska (45'), A. Putivtsev (90').

Legia Warszawa controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.