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Legia Warszawa vs ŁKS Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
2/9/2020EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 21Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Legia Warszawa66%
×Draw20%
ŁKS Łódź14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
2.06
ŁKS Łódź
0.82

Legia Warszawa creates 151% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 36 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.86
ŁKS Łódź
0.64

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.01
ŁKS Łódź
2.25

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
86%
Legia Warszawa or ŁKS Łódź
80%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
34%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
41%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
87%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
61%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
34%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
56%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
20%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
83%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.86 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
66%
level
20%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
14%

Legia Warszawa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Legia Warszawa 3–1 ŁKS Łódź

Legia Warszawa beat ŁKS Łódź 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.