ŁKS Łódź 2–3 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Legia Warszawa

8/25/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 6Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź31%

×Draw25%

Legia Warszawa44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

ŁKS Łódź

1.23

Legia Warszawa

1.52

Legia Warszawa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

1.26

creates per match

1.27

1.77

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.26

Legia Warszawa

1.27

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.77

Legia Warszawa

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

56%

ŁKS Łódź or Legia Warszawa

75%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

69%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

13%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

71%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

35%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

13%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

45%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

41%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

31%

level

25%

Legia Warszawa scores more

44%

Legia Warszawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff