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Legia Warszawa vs Aston Villa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
9/21/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Legia Warszawa37%
×Draw24%
Aston Villa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.52
Aston Villa
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.88
Aston Villa
2.00

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.13
Aston Villa
1.17

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
61%
Legia Warszawa or Aston Villa
76%
Draw or Aston Villa
63%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
18%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
78%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
45%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
20%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
79%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
46%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
49%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.88 + Aston Villa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aston Villa attack 2.00 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
37%
level
24%
Aston Villa scores more
39%

Aston Villa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Legia Warszawa 3–2 Aston Villa

Legia Warszawa beat Aston Villa 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Warszawa.