Aston Villa 2–1 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Legia Warszawa

11/30/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aston Villa46%

×Draw22%

Legia Warszawa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.58

Aston Villa

1.94

Legia Warszawa

1.58

Aston Villa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

2.29

creates per match

2.16

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Aston Villa

2.29

Legia Warszawa

2.16

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.00

Legia Warszawa

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

68%

Aston Villa or Legia Warszawa

78%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

54%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

26%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

86%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

58%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

30%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

79%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

47%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

59%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 2.29 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Legia Warszawa attack 2.16 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aston Villa scores more

46%

level

22%

Legia Warszawa scores more

32%

Aston Villa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff