Legia Warszawa U19 1–3 Arka Gdynia U19

Legia Warszawa U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Arka Gdynia U19

4/23/2023

Central Youth League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Legia Warszawa U1961%

×Draw19%

Arka Gdynia U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia Warszawa U19Expected goals in this matchArka Gdynia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.36

Legia Warszawa U19

2.48

Arka Gdynia U19

1.36

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

2.92

creates per match

1.46

1.26

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Legia Warszawa U19

2.92

Arka Gdynia U19

1.46

allows per match

Legia Warszawa U19

1.26

Arka Gdynia U19

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa U19 ↓

Arka Gdynia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa U19 or draw

80%

Legia Warszawa U19 or Arka Gdynia U19

81%

Draw or Arka Gdynia U19

39%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+

40%

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals

92%

Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals

70%

Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals

44%

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals

74%

Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals

39%

Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

Arka Gdynia U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.92 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.48

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 1.46 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Legia Warszawa U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more

20%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff