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Arka Gdynia U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Arka Gdynia U19
Arka Gdynia U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Legia Warszawa U19
Legia Warszawa U19
8/31/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1934%
×Draw21%
Legia Warszawa U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia U19
1.84
Legia Warszawa U19
2.13

Legia Warszawa U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 52 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U19
2.00
Legia Warszawa U19
2.58

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U19
1.68
Legia Warszawa U19
1.69

finishing

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U19 ↓

Legia Warszawa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U19 or draw
55%
Arka Gdynia U19 or Legia Warszawa U19
79%
Draw or Legia Warszawa U19
66%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+
17%
Legia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals
84%
Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals
55%
Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals
28%
Legia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
88%
Legia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
63%
Legia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Legia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

Legia Warszawa U19 away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 2.00 + Legia Warszawa U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Legia Warszawa U19 attack 2.58 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more
34%
level
21%
Legia Warszawa U19 scores more
45%

Legia Warszawa U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Legia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Arka Gdynia U19 0–2 Legia Warszawa U19

Legia Warszawa U19 beat Arka Gdynia U19 2-0 in Central Youth League on August 31, 2024.