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Legia Warszawa II vs Broń Radom — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Broń Radom
Broń Radom
3/1/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Legia Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Legia Warszawa II58%
×Draw21%
Broń Radom21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.13
Broń Radom
1.21

Legia Warszawa II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Broń Radom
1.17

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Broń Radom
1.87

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Broń Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
79%
Legia Warszawa II or Broń Radom
79%
Draw or Broń Radom
42%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
36%
Broń Radom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
88%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
63%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
35%
Broń Radom 1+ goals
70%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
34%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
73%
Broń Radom (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.13

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
58%
level
21%
Broń Radom scores more
21%

Legia Warszawa II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa II vs Broń Radom

Legia Warszawa II beat Broń Radom 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Legia Training Center in Książenice.