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Broń Radom vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
8/10/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Broń Radom35%
×Draw25%
Legia Warszawa II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.40
Legia Warszawa II
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 104 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
60%
Broń Radom or Legia Warszawa II
75%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
65%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
16%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
75%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
41%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
17%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
78%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
44%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
47%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Broń Radom scores more
35%
level
25%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
40%

Legia Warszawa II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Broń Radom 1–1 Legia Warszawa II

Broń Radom and Legia Warszawa II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.