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Legetafo Legedadi vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
C. Gugsa 74'
E. Frimpong 56'
I. Ouro-Agoro 45+1', 1'
12/22/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi17%
×Draw23%
Kedus Giorgis59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.82
Kedus Giorgis
1.74

Kedus Giorgis creates 112% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Kedus Giorgis
0.77

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
41%
Legetafo Legedadi or Kedus Giorgis
77%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
83%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
5%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
56%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
20%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
5%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
82%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
52%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
23%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
17%
level
23%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
59%

Kedus Giorgis at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
I. Ouro-Agoro↳ A. Gebremichael
15'
N. Zeleke
45+1'
I. Ouro-Agoro
56'
E. Frimpong
66'
T. Ayele← T. Ayele
67'
D. Kelemework← D. Kelemework
70'
A. Yalew← A. Yalew
74'
C. Gugsa
77'
F. Alemayehu← F. Alemayehu
79'
B. Wolde← B. Wolde
79'
D. Araya← D. Araya
89'
A. Gebremichael← T. Teshome
89'
C. Gugsa← A. Terfa
90+1'
O. Jul← O. Jul
90+1'
T. Nigussu← T. Nigussu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legetafo Legedadi 0–4 Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat Legetafo Legedadi 4-0 in Premier League on December 22, 2022.

Goals: I. Ouro-Agoro (1', 45+1'), E. Frimpong (56'), C. Gugsa (74').

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.