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Kedus Giorgis vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
H. Sherefa 58'
I. Ouro-Agoro 17'
I. Befkadu 90+4'
6/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kedus Giorgis54%
×Draw24%
Legetafo Legedadi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.67
Legetafo Legedadi
0.96

Kedus Giorgis creates 74% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
78%
Kedus Giorgis or Legetafo Legedadi
76%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
46%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
29%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
81%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
50%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
23%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
62%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
25%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
71%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
54%
level
24%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
22%

Kedus Giorgis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
I. Ouro-Agoro
46'
S. Awol← S. Awol
46'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew
53'
T. Negash
58'
H. Sherefa
70'
H. Sherefa← G. Panom
70'
A. Yalew← D. Araya
71'
O. Jul← O. Jul
78'
D. Tefera← D. Tefera
78'
C. Gugsa← T. Teshome
90+4'
I. Befkadu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Legetafo Legedadi

Kedus Giorgis beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-1 in Premier League on June 1, 2023.

Goals: I. Ouro-Agoro (17'), H. Sherefa (58'), I. Befkadu (90+4').

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.