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Legetafo Legedadi vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
S. Dagnachew 90+3', 45'
5/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi20%
×Draw25%
Fasil Ketema55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.89
Fasil Ketema
1.64

Fasil Ketema creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
45%
Legetafo Legedadi or Fasil Ketema
75%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
80%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
7%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
59%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
22%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
6%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
81%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
49%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
27%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
20%
level
25%
Fasil Ketema scores more
55%

Fasil Ketema at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. Dagnachew↳ B. Meleyo
46'
S. Gugsa← S. Gugsa
70'
B. Meleyo← T. Solomon
70'
F. Alemu← F. Alemu
82'
Y. Hassen← Y. Hassen
89'
A. Tesfaye
89'
F. Alemayehu
90+3'
S. Dagnachew
90+3'
S. Dagnachew

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legetafo Legedadi vs Fasil Ketema

Fasil Ketema beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2023.

Goals: S. Dagnachew (45', 90+3').

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.