Fasil Ketema 3–0 Legetafo Legedadi: Result & Stats

Fasil Ketema

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Legetafo Legedadi

F. Alemu 90+2'

G. Natnael 86', 73'

11/25/2022

Premier League · Round 9Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fasil Ketema53%

×Draw25%

Legetafo Legedadi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fasil KetemaExpected goals in this matchLegetafo Legedadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.96

Fasil Ketema

1.64

Legetafo Legedadi

0.96

Fasil Ketema creates 71% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

1.28

creates per match

1.14

0.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fasil Ketema

1.28

Legetafo Legedadi

1.14

allows per match

Fasil Ketema

0.78

Legetafo Legedadi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw

78%

Fasil Ketema or Legetafo Legedadi

75%

Draw or Legetafo Legedadi

47%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

29%

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

81%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

49%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

23%

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

62%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

25%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

71%

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more

53%

level

25%

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

22%

Fasil Ketema at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

B. Meleyo← S. Dagnachew

62'

G. Natnael← G. Natnael

65'

A. Tamirat← A. Tamirat

73'

G. Natnael

74'

G. Natnael

79'

I. Befkadu← I. Befkadu

79'

D. Kelemework← D. Kelemework

86'

G. Natnael

87'

K. Wondimu

90+2'

F. Alemu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff