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Legetafo Legedadi vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
I. Befkadu 68'
M. Tola 54'
A. Tefera 90+6'
R. Teklemichael 52' (pen)
12/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi22%
×Draw25%
Ethiopia Bunna53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.96
Ethiopia Bunna
1.65

Ethiopia Bunna creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
47%
Legetafo Legedadi or Ethiopia Bunna
75%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
78%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
8%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
62%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
25%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
7%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
81%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
49%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
29%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
22%
level
25%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
53%

Ethiopia Bunna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
R. TeklemichaelPenalty
54'
M. Tola
55'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew
66'
A. Tefera← A. Tefera
68'
I. Befkadu
76'
M. Doji
79'
R. James
79'
A. Abduljebar← A. Abduljebar
79'
K. Wondimu← K. Wondimu
90+1'
T. Ayele
90+5'
A. Nadew← A. Nadew
90+6'
A. Tefera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legetafo Legedadi 2–2 Ethiopia Bunna

Legetafo Legedadi and Ethiopia Bunna drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 1, 2022.

Goals: R. Teklemichael (52' pen), M. Tola (54'), I. Befkadu (68'), A. Tefera (90+6').

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.