Ethiopia Bunna 1–1 Legetafo Legedadi

Ethiopia Bunna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Legetafo Legedadi

M. Nassir 79'

A. Arbo 56'

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 25Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna53%

×Draw24%

Legetafo Legedadi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ethiopia BunnaExpected goals in this matchLegetafo Legedadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.06

Ethiopia Bunna

1.74

Legetafo Legedadi

1.06

Ethiopia Bunna creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

1.14

0.99

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna

1.48

Legetafo Legedadi

1.14

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna

0.99

Legetafo Legedadi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw

77%

Ethiopia Bunna or Legetafo Legedadi

76%

Draw or Legetafo Legedadi

47%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+

29%

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals

82%

Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals

52%

Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals

25%

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

65%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

29%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)

70%

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.48 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more

53%

level

24%

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

23%

Ethiopia Bunna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

F. Alemayehu

56'

A. Arbo

64'

E. Ataro

70'

A. Tefera← A. Tefera

70'

A. Worku← A. Worku

71'

C. Damtew← C. Damtew

77'

I. Befkadu

79'

M. Nassir

86'

O. Jul← O. Jul

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff