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Legetafo Legedadi vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
O. Jul 68'
C. Musiige 83'
10/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Bahir Dar University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi25%
×Draw25%
Dire Dawa Kenema50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
1.06
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.59

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
50%
Legetafo Legedadi or Dire Dawa Kenema
75%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
75%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
9%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
65%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
29%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
9%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
80%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
47%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
34%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
25%
level
25%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
50%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Ayele
65'
A. Meki← A. Meki
68'
O. Jul
70'
M. Mussa← M. Mussa
72'
A. Arbo← A. Arbo
72'
M. Abera← M. Abera
75'
A. Bekele← A. Bekele
80'
Y. Taddese← Y. Taddese
83'
C. Musiige
89'
T. Ayele← T. Ayele

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legetafo Legedadi 1 – 1 Dire Dawa Kenema

Legetafo Legedadi and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 6, 2022.

Goals: O. Jul (68'), C. Musiige (83').

The match was played at Bahir Dar University Stadium in Bahir Dar.