Dire Dawa Kenema 1–2 Legetafo Legedadi

Dire Dawa Kenema

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Legetafo Legedadi

B. Getachew 90+4'

S. Traore 58', 55'

4/3/2023

Premier League · Round 17Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema43%

×Draw26%

Legetafo Legedadi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dire Dawa KenemaExpected goals in this matchLegetafo Legedadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.24

Dire Dawa Kenema

1.48

Legetafo Legedadi

1.24

Dire Dawa Kenema creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 14 away

0.97

creates per match

1.14

1.34

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema

0.97

Legetafo Legedadi

1.14

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema

1.34

Legetafo Legedadi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw

68%

Dire Dawa Kenema or Legetafo Legedadi

74%

Draw or Legetafo Legedadi

57%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+

21%

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals

77%

Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals

43%

Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals

19%

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

71%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

35%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)

57%

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more

43%

level

26%

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

32%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

H. Hassen

46'

G. Mebrate← G. Mebrate

53'

T. Aniley← T. Aniley

55'

S. Traore

58'

S. Traore

67'

A. Asebe← A. Asebe

67'

S. Getachew← S. Getachew

87'

C. Damtew← C. Damtew

90'

I. Befkadu← I. Befkadu

90+4'

B. Getachew

90+5'

K. Mensah

90+5'

K. Mensah

90+5'

K. Mensah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff