Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Legetafo Legedadi vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
S. Bereket 43'
3/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi24%
×Draw24%
Awassa Kenema52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
1.05
Awassa Kenema
1.67

Awassa Kenema creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
48%
Legetafo Legedadi or Awassa Kenema
76%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
76%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
9%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
65%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
28%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
9%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
81%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
50%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
32%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
24%
level
24%
Awassa Kenema scores more
52%

Awassa Kenema at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Bereket
28'
M. Kassim
32'
G. Ahmed
43'
S. Bereket
54'
A. Arbo← A. Arbo
58'
A. Sulieman← A. Sulieman
58'
A. Atula← A. Atula
81'
S. Wodessa
82'
S. Hassen
84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legetafo Legedadi 0–1 Awassa Kenema

Awassa Kenema beat Legetafo Legedadi 1-0 in Premier League on March 6, 2023.

Goals: S. Bereket (43').

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.