Awassa Kenema 1–2 Legetafo Legedadi: Result & Stats

Awassa Kenema

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Legetafo Legedadi

A. Saluman 26'

C. Damtew 60', 43'

10/2/2022

Premier League · Round 1Bahir Dar University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Awassa Kenema49%

×Draw25%

Legetafo Legedadi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Awassa KenemaExpected goals in this matchLegetafo Legedadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.11

Awassa Kenema

1.61

Legetafo Legedadi

1.11

Awassa Kenema creates 45% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 14 away

1.23

creates per match

1.14

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Awassa Kenema

1.23

Legetafo Legedadi

1.14

allows per match

Awassa Kenema

1.09

Legetafo Legedadi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw

74%

Awassa Kenema or Legetafo Legedadi

75%

Draw or Legetafo Legedadi

51%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+

26%

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals

80%

Awassa Kenema 2+ goals

48%

Awassa Kenema 3+ goals

22%

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

67%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

30%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)

65%

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more

49%

level

25%

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

26%

Awassa Kenema at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Saluman

43'

C. Damtew

53'

H. Wondmagegn← H. Wondmagegn

53'

T. Hefamo← T. Hefamo

59'

A. Tefera← A. Tefera

59'

A. Tamirat← A. Tamirat

60'

C. Damtew

70'

A. Yohannes← A. Yohannes

70'

T. Yohannes← T. Yohannes

72'

A. Arbo← A. Arbo

85'

M. Indrias← M. Indrias

89'

M. Abera← M. Abera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff