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Legetafo Legedadi vs Arba Minch Kenema — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
B. Girma 28'
U. Basiru 57'
A. Reshid 20' (OG)
10/26/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi22%
×Draw25%
Arba Minch Kenema53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.93
Arba Minch Kenema
1.59

Arba Minch Kenema creates 71% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Arba Minch Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Arba Minch Kenema
0.98

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Arba Minch Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
47%
Legetafo Legedadi or Arba Minch Kenema
75%
Draw or Arba Minch Kenema
78%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
7%
Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
61%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
24%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
7%
Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
80%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
47%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
29%
Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Arba Minch Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Arba Minch Kenema attack 1.00 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
22%
level
25%
Arba Minch Kenema scores more
53%

Arba Minch Kenema at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. ReshidOwn goal
28'
B. Girma
31'
Y. Mulugeta
43'
Y. Kassaye← Y. Kassaye
47'
G. Hagos
57'
U. Basiru
61'
A. Nesru
61'
G. Disasa← G. Disasa
63'
K. Jima
70'
C. Markneh
70'
M. Wondimu← M. Wondimu
72'
S. Peter
82'
C. Markneh← B. Hailemariam
83'
G. Eyob← G. Eyob
88'
T. Tesfaye← T. Tesfaye
90+4'
D. Tefera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legetafo Legedadi vs Arba Minch Kenema

Arba Minch Kenema beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-1 in Premier League on October 26, 2022.

Goals: A. Reshid (20' o.g.), B. Girma (28'), U. Basiru (57').

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.