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Arba Minch Kenema vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
A. Hussien 61', 22' (pen)
S. Awol 35'
6/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Arba Minch Kenema45%
×Draw26%
Legetafo Legedadi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arba Minch Kenema
1.46
Legetafo Legedadi
1.13

Arba Minch Kenema creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arba Minch Kenema
0.91
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Arba Minch Kenema
1.12
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arba Minch Kenema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arba Minch Kenema or draw
71%
Arba Minch Kenema or Legetafo Legedadi
74%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
55%

Winning margin

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
22%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
77%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
43%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
18%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
68%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
31%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
60%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arba Minch Kenema at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arba Minch Kenema attack 0.91 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arba Minch Kenema scores more
45%
level
26%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
29%

Arba Minch Kenema at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Tesfaye
21'
C. Damtew
22'
A. HussienPenalty
34'
M. Elias
35'
S. Awol
36'
A. Tesfaye
36'
A. Tesfaye
43'
T. Negash← T. Negash
46'
E. Kapaito← E. Kapaito
46'
B. Gezahegn← B. Gezahegn
48'
I. Befkadu
54'
K. Mensah
61'
A. Hussien
69'
A. Akalu← A. Akalu
77'
M. Meskele← M. Meskele
90+1'
S. Traore← S. Traore
90+5'
A. Memihiru← A. Memihiru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arba Minch Kenema 2–1 Legetafo Legedadi

Arba Minch Kenema beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-1 in Premier League on June 8, 2023.

Goals: A. Hussien (22' pen, 61'), S. Awol (35').

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.