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Legetafo Legedadi vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
A. Arbo 90+3'
5/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi25%
×Draw25%
Adama Kenema50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
1.05
Adama Kenema
1.61

Adama Kenema creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
50%
Legetafo Legedadi or Adama Kenema
75%
Draw or Adama Kenema
75%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
9%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
65%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
28%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
9%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
80%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
48%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
33%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
25%
level
25%
Adama Kenema scores more
50%

Adama Kenema at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
M. Ame← M. Ame
65'
Y. Tarekegn← Y. Tarekegn
75'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew
75'
O. Jul← O. Jul
76'
80'
N. Nuri← N. Nuri
80'
E. Leges← E. Leges
90'
90+1'
M. Solomon
90+3'
A. Arbo
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legetafo Legedadi vs Adama Kenema

Legetafo Legedadi beat Adama Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on May 26, 2023.

Goals: A. Arbo (90+3').

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.