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Adama Kenema vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
M. Ame 73', 72'
A. Wondimu 14'
12/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Adama Kenema46%
×Draw26%
Legetafo Legedadi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
1.50
Legetafo Legedadi
1.13

Adama Kenema creates 33% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.01
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.12
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
71%
Adama Kenema or Legetafo Legedadi
74%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
54%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
23%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
78%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
44%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
19%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
68%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
31%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
62%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.01 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Adama Kenema defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
46%
level
26%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
29%

Adama Kenema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Wondimu
23'
T. Aniley
44'
45+3'
M. Ame← M. Ame
53'
A. Tesfaye
54'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew
54'
A. Tesfaye← A. Tesfaye
60'
A. Tesfaye
63'
B. Ali← B. Ali
63'
A. Reshad← A. Reshad
66'
M. Tola
72'
M. Ame
73'
M. Ame
78'
A. Nadew← A. Nadew
78'
A. Arbo← A. Arbo
90+1'
A. Biniam← A. Biniam
90+1'
Y. Tarekegn← Y. Tarekegn
90+1'
M. Solomon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adama Kenema vs Legetafo Legedadi

Adama Kenema beat Legetafo Legedadi 3-0 in Premier League on December 6, 2022.

Goals: A. Wondimu (14'), M. Ame (72', 73').

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.