Leganes 2–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mirandes

Dani Raba 90'

Juan Muñoz 7'

Juanlu Sánchez 56'

Roberto López 37'

12/6/2022

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leganes43%

×Draw27%

Mirandes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.06

Leganes

1.34

Mirandes

1.06

Leganes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leganes

1.24

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Leganes

1.06

Mirandes

1.44

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Leganes+0.16scores more

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

70%

Leganes or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

57%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

20%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

74%

Leganes 2+ goals

39%

Leganes 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

59%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.24 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Leganes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganes scores more

43%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

30%

Leganes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Roberto López

Mirandes · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Juan Muñoz↳ José Arnáiz

37'

Roberto López↳ Juanlu Sánchez

39'

Juan Muñoz

45+1'

Rubén Pardo

55'

Fede Vico

56'

Juanlu Sánchez↳ José Salinas

61'

Raúl Navas

68'

Dani Raba← R. Durmisi

68'

S. Cissé← Y. Neyou

69'

Beñat Prados← Óscar Pinchi

77'

Raúl Parra← Roberto López

78'

Naim García← José Arnáiz

86'

Alejandro Barbudo Barbu

86'

Y. Qasmi← Fede Vico

86'

Manu García← Oriol Rey

86'

S. Mráz← Raúl García

90+3'

Alfonso Herrero

90'

Dani Raba↳ Sergio González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesMirandes

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots9

2Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target3

6Off Target5

3Blocked1

11Inside Box3

2Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

413Total Passes394

328Accurate Passes302

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3