Leganes 2–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mirandes

José Arnáiz 36' (pen)

A. Nyom 24'

3/6/2022

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leganes43%

×Draw27%

Mirandes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.06

Leganes

1.34

Mirandes

1.06

Leganes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leganes

1.24

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Leganes

1.06

Mirandes

1.44

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Leganes+0.16scores more

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

70%

Leganes or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

57%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

20%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

74%

Leganes 2+ goals

39%

Leganes 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

59%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.24 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Leganes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganes scores more

43%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

30%

Leganes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Nyom

Leganes · D

8.6

Match Events

21'

Yacine Qasmi

24'

A. Nyom↳ Sergio González

34'

Allan NyomPenalty awarded

36'

José ArnáizPenalty

39'

Javier Hernandez

46'

L. Ranđelović← José Arnáiz

60'

Martín Calderón← Jon Garrido

61'

G. Shibasaki← Recio

67'

Brugui← H. Hassan

67'

Álex López← Oriol Rey

70'

Juan Muñoz← Rubén Pardo

70'

Jon Bautista← Y. Qasmi

73'

Roger Brugué

74'

Jon Bautista

76'

Alejandro Marqués← Iñigo Vicente

80'

Jorge Sáenz

85'

Robert Ibáñez← E. Bárcenas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesMirandes

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots14

5Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked6

10Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

362Total Passes488

283Accurate Passes398

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0