Leganes 0–1 Girona: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Girona

M. Sylla 38'

10/11/2020

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Leganes43%

×Draw29%

Girona28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.96

Leganes

1.25

Girona

0.96

Leganes creates 30% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 72 away

1.27

creates per match

1.04

0.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Leganes

1.27

Girona

1.04

allows per match

Leganes

0.87

Girona

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par

Girona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

72%

Leganes or Girona

71%

Draw or Girona

57%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

19%

Girona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

71%

Leganes 2+ goals

36%

Leganes 3+ goals

13%

Girona 1+ goals

62%

Girona 2+ goals

25%

Girona 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

60%

Girona (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 106 matches

Girona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.27 + Girona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Girona attack 1.04 + Leganes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganes scores more

43%

level

29%

Girona scores more

28%

Leganes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Sylla

Girona · F

7.6

Match Events

11'

Sebastián Cristóforo

14'

Rubén Pérez

20'

Sabin Merino

38'

M. Sylla↳ Monchu

44'

Aday Benítez

45'

Javier Avilés

46'

Juan Muñoz← Javier Avilés

55'

Rubén Pardo

58'

M. Santos← Sabin Merino

61'

I. Kebe← S. Cristóforo

67'

70'

79'

85'

86'

86'

Pablo Moreno← Samuel Sáiz

87'

Monchu

90'

Miguel de la Fuente← Rubén Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesGirona

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots9

8Corners3

18Fouls27

Shots

16Total Shots9

2On Target4

10Off Target3

4Blocked2

13Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

344Total Passes235

264Accurate Passes145

77%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls27

5Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2