Leganes 0–2 Girona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Leganes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Girona

Portu 22', 13'

3/16/2019

La Liga · Round 28Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Leganes36%

×Draw28%

Girona36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.18

Leganes

1.19

Girona

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 68 away

0.98

creates per match

1.16

1.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Leganes

0.98

Girona

1.16

allows per match

Leganes

1.20

Girona

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganes+0.00on par

Girona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

64%

Leganes or Girona

72%

Draw or Girona

64%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

15%

Girona wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

70%

Leganes 2+ goals

33%

Leganes 3+ goals

12%

Girona 1+ goals

69%

Girona 2+ goals

33%

Girona 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

50%

Girona (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

Girona away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 0.98 + Girona defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Girona attack 1.16 + Leganes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Leganes scores more

36%

level

28%

Girona scores more

36%

Leganes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Leganes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Portu

Girona · F

8.0

Match Events

13'

Portu↳ Borja García

17'

Marc Muniesa

22'

Portu↳ Valery

32'

38'

45'

46'

52'

61'

63'

64'

Planas← Valery

65'

G. Carrillo← Recio

73'

Michael Santos← M. Braithwaite

79'

Ramalho← Borja García

87'

Aleix García← Pedro Porro

90'

Michael Santos

90'

Guido Carrillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesGirona

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots8

6Corners2

20Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target4

4Off Target4

5Blocked0

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

438Total Passes389

337Accurate Passes290

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls6

8Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0