Leganes 2–0 Albacete: Result & Stats

Leganes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Albacete

Diego García 68' (pen)

Dani Raba 22' (pen)

8/27/2023

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leganes35%

×Draw27%

Albacete39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeganesExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.33

Leganes

1.24

Albacete

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.24

creates per match

1.59

1.06

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leganes

1.24

Albacete

1.59

allows per match

Leganes

1.06

Albacete

1.24

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

Leganes+0.16scores more

Albacete-0.76scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganes ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leganes or draw

61%

Leganes or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

65%

Winning margin

Leganes wins by 2+

15%

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leganes 1+ goals

71%

Leganes 2+ goals

35%

Leganes 3+ goals

13%

Albacete 1+ goals

74%

Albacete 2+ goals

38%

Albacete 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Leganes (draw refunded)

47%

Albacete (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.24 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganes attack 1.24 + Albacete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Albacete attack 1.59 + Leganes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leganes scores more

35%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

39%

Albacete at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Diego García

Leganes · F

7.7

Match Events

22'

Dani RabaPenalty

29'

Luis Perea

33'

Seydouba Cisse

42'

Iker Undabarrena

46'

Juan Antonio← Cristián Glauder

46'

Agus Medina← Carlos Isaac

62'

Y. Neyou← Dani Raba

62'

J. Chicco← Iker Undabarrena

66'

Juan Antonio Ros

68'

Diego GarcíaPenalty

70'

Riki Rodríguez

72'

Antonio Pacheco← Riki Rodríguez

72'

Dani Escriche← Olaetxea

72'

S. Shashoua← Alberto Quiles

77'

Jorge Sáenz← Naim García

81'

Diego Conde← Dani Jiménez

81'

Darío Poveda← Diego García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeganesAlbacete

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots12

2Corners5

9Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

2On Target3

8Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

301Total Passes606

198Accurate Passes499

66%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1