Albacete 1–3 Leganes: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Leganes

A. Puertas 19'

G. Melero 90'

R. Lopez 75'

A. Millan 30'

1/4/2026

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Albacete39%

×Draw29%

Leganes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.03

Albacete

1.17

Leganes

1.03

Albacete creates 14% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 106 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

1.09

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Albacete

1.25

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

68%

Albacete or Leganes

71%

Draw or Leganes

61%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

16%

Leganes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

69%

Albacete 2+ goals

33%

Albacete 3+ goals

11%

Leganes 1+ goals

64%

Leganes 2+ goals

28%

Leganes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

55%

Leganes (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 150 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.25 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Leganes attack 0.97 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albacete scores more

39%

level

29%

Leganes scores more

32%

Albacete at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

R. Lopez

Leganes · M

8.0

Match Events

19'

A. Puertas↳ D. Escriche

30'

A. Millan↳ E. Franquesa

42'

Amadou Diawara

45'

Marvel

62'

Victor Valverde

62'

H. J. Garcia← J. Vallejo

64'

N. Garcia← Duk

67'

Seydouba Cisse

67'

J. Villar← A. Pacheco

67'

J. Betancor← V. Valverde

67'

J. Morcillo← D. Escriche

74'

R. Lopez← A. Millan

74'

D. Garcia← O. Plano

75'

R. Lopez↳ R. Pena

76'

A. Melendez← R. Rodriguez

83'

M. Leiva← J. Cruz

83'

G. Melero← S. Cisse

90'

G. Melero↳ R. Lopez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteLeganes

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots12

1.91Expected Goals (xG)1.82

5Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target2

5Blocked5

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

355Total Passes513

282Accurate Passes437

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0