Leganés II 1–2 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Leganés II

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Las Rozas

Hugo Solozábal 19'

S. Lagreca 58'

David Flores 10'

4/27/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Leganés II42%

×Draw28%

Las Rozas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leganés IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.02

Leganés II

1.28

Las Rozas

1.02

Leganés II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 88 away

1.41

creates per match

1.23

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Leganés II

1.41

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Leganés II

0.82

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Las Rozas →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw

70%

Leganés II or Las Rozas

72%

Draw or Las Rozas

58%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+

19%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals

72%

Leganés II 2+ goals

37%

Leganés II 3+ goals

14%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

64%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

27%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)

59%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leganés II scores more

42%

level

28%

Las Rozas scores more

30%

Leganés II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

David Flores

19'

Hugo Solozábal

58'

Jorge Herrero← Fer Rodríguez

58'

Adrián Rosell← D. Osei

58'

S. Lagreca

61'

Roberto← Borja Pascual

64'

P. Ramirez

69'

Luis Jimeno← José Friaza

69'

B. Mejía← Javi Bernal

69'

L. Méndez← Alberto Moreno

80'

Luis Simón← S. Lagreca

80'

Varo← Losada

81'

David Bala← Iker Bachiller

89'

Piri

Leganés

Las

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Capdevila

58'▲Jorge Herrero←▼Fer Rodríguez

58'▲Adrián Rosell←▼D. Osei

69'▲Luis Jimeno←▼José Friaza

81'▲David Bala←▼Iker Bachiller

Leganés II substitutes

HerreroRosellJimenoBala

Manager: Manu González

61'▲Roberto←▼Borja Pascual

69'▲B. Mejía←▼Javi Bernal

69'▲L. Méndez←▼Alberto Moreno

80'▲Luis Simón←▼S. Lagreca

80'▲Varo←▼Losada

Las Rozas substitutes

RobertoMejíaMéndezSimónVaro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 1–2 Las Rozas

Las Rozas beat Leganés II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: David Flores (10'), Hugo Solozábal (19'), S. Lagreca (58').

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.

Leganés II vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Leganés II 1–2 Las Rozas