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Las Rozas vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Leganés II
Leganés II
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Las Rozas39%
×Draw24%
Leganés II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.55
Leganés II
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 79 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
63%
Las Rozas or Leganés II
76%
Draw or Leganés II
61%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
19%
Leganés II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
79%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
46%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
20%
Leganés II 1+ goals
78%
Leganés II 2+ goals
44%
Leganés II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
51%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.55

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Las Rozas scores more
39%
level
24%
Leganés II scores more
37%

Las Rozas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 2–1 Leganés II

Las Rozas beat Leganés II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.