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Leganés II vs A Madrid III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
A Madrid III
A Madrid III
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leganés II34%
×Draw23%
A Madrid III43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.53
A Madrid III
1.76

A Madrid III creates 15% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
A Madrid III
2.71

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
A Madrid III
1.65

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
A Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

A Madrid III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
57%
Leganés II or A Madrid III
77%
Draw or A Madrid III
66%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
16%
A Madrid III wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
78%
Leganés II 2+ goals
45%
Leganés II 3+ goals
20%
A Madrid III 1+ goals
83%
A Madrid III 2+ goals
52%
A Madrid III 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
44%
A Madrid III (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

A Madrid III away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + A Madrid III defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

A Madrid III attack 2.71 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leganés II scores more
34%
level
23%
A Madrid III scores more
43%

A Madrid III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "A Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs A Madrid III

Leganés II and A Madrid III drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.