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A Madrid III vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

A Madrid III
A Madrid III
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Leganés II
Leganés II
A. K. Badji 80'
J. Rajado 61'
S. Vinatea 25'
Sule 83'
R. Gomez 66'
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

A Madrid III44%
×Draw23%
Leganés II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

A Madrid III
1.75
Leganés II
1.48

A Madrid III creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

A Madrid III
2.18
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

A Madrid III
1.06
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

A Madrid III+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A Madrid III ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

A Madrid III or draw
67%
A Madrid III or Leganés II
77%
Draw or Leganés II
56%

Winning margin

A Madrid III wins by 2+
23%
Leganés II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

A Madrid III 1+ goals
83%
A Madrid III 2+ goals
52%
A Madrid III 3+ goals
25%
Leganés II 1+ goals
77%
Leganés II 2+ goals
43%
Leganés II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

A Madrid III (draw refunded)
57%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A Madrid III at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A Madrid III attack 2.18 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.75

Leganés II attack 1.89 + A Madrid III defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

A Madrid III scores more
44%
level
23%
Leganés II scores more
33%

A Madrid III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "A Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Vinatea
61'
J. Rajado
66'
R. Gomez
80'
A. K. Badji
83'
Sule
90+9'
A. Sibacha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: A Madrid III 3–2 Leganés II

A Madrid III beat Leganés II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 8, 2026.

Goals: S. Vinatea (25'), J. Rajado (61'), R. Gomez (66'), A. K. Badji (80'), Sule (83').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.