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Leek Town vs Hednesford Town — League #59 2026

Leek Town
Leek Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
A. Rose 79'
O. Harrison 31'
9/16/2025League #59League #59 · Round 10F. Ball Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Leek Town18%
×Draw25%
Hednesford Town57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leek Town
0.74
Hednesford Town
1.56

Hednesford Town creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leek Town
0.25
Hednesford Town
1.38

allows per match

Leek Town
1.75
Hednesford Town
1.23

finishing

Leek Town+0.00on par
Hednesford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leek Town ↓

Hednesford Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leek Town or draw
43%
Leek Town or Hednesford Town
75%
Draw or Hednesford Town
82%

Winning margin

Leek Town wins by 2+
5%
Hednesford Town wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Leek Town 1+ goals
52%
Leek Town 2+ goals
17%
Leek Town 3+ goals
4%
Hednesford Town 1+ goals
79%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
46%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Leek Town (draw refunded)
24%
Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leek Town at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Hednesford Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leek Town attack 0.25 + Hednesford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.74

Hednesford Town attack 1.38 + Leek Town defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leek Town scores more
18%
level
25%
Hednesford Town scores more
57%

Hednesford Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hednesford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
O. Harrison
79'
A. Rose
Leek
Hednesford
J. Brehaut
Manager: J. Brehaut
S. King
Manager: S. King

Match Recap: Leek Town vs Hednesford Town

Hednesford Town beat Leek Town 2-0 in League #59 on September 16, 2025.

Goals: O. Harrison (31'), A. Rose (79').

The match was played at F. Ball Community Stadium in Leek, Staffordshire.