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Hednesford Town vs Leek Town — League #59 2026

Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leek Town
Leek Town
O. Harrison 27'
1/24/2026League #59League #59 · Round 28Keys Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hednesford Town69%
×Draw22%
Leek Town9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hednesford Town
1.75
Leek Town
0.47

Hednesford Town creates 272% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hednesford Town
2.00
Leek Town
0.50

allows per match

Hednesford Town
0.45
Leek Town
1.50

finishing

Hednesford Town+0.00on par
Leek Town+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hednesford Town ↓

Leek Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hednesford Town or draw
91%
Hednesford Town or Leek Town
78%
Draw or Leek Town
31%

Winning margin

Hednesford Town wins by 2+
41%
Leek Town wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hednesford Town 1+ goals
83%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
52%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
25%
Leek Town 1+ goals
37%
Leek Town 2+ goals
8%
Leek Town 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
88%
Leek Town (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hednesford Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Leek Town away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hednesford Town attack 2.00 + Leek Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Leek Town attack 0.50 + Hednesford Town defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hednesford Town scores more
69%
level
22%
Leek Town scores more
9%

Hednesford Town at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hednesford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
O. Harrison

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hednesford Town vs Leek Town

Hednesford Town beat Leek Town 1-0 in League #59 on January 24, 2026.

Goals: O. Harrison (27').

The match was played at Keys Park in Hednesford, Staffordshire.