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Leeds vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
Raphinha 19'
M. Antonio 90'
Junior Firpo 67' (OG)
9/25/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds49%
×Draw24%
West Ham27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.71
West Ham
1.19

Leeds creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.57
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
73%
Leeds or West Ham
76%
Draw or West Ham
51%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
27%
West Ham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
82%
Leeds 2+ goals
51%
Leeds 3+ goals
24%
West Ham 1+ goals
70%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
65%
West Ham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

West Ham attack 1.06 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leeds scores more
49%
level
24%
West Ham scores more
27%

Leeds at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. AntonioWest HamWest Ham · F
8.7

Match Events

19'
Raphinha↳ M. Klich
20'
Raphinha
28'
Pablo Fornals
46'
J. Harrison← D. James
54'
Michail AntonioGoal cancelled
55'
Michail Antonio
67'
Junior FirpoOwn goal
69'
T. Roberts← Raphinha
70'
Illan Meslier
78'
N. Vlašić← Pablo Fornals
81'
Tyler Roberts
90+1'
C. Summerville← J. Shackleton
90+7'
A. Yarmolenko← M. Antonio
90+2'
C. Dawson← J. Bowen
90'
M. Antonio↳ D. Rice

Possession

54%Leeds

Shots

15Leeds

Pass accuracy

51%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsWest
Overview
54%Possession46%
15Total Shots20
5Corners7
10Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots20
5On Target7
4Off Target9
6Blocked4
6Inside Box11
9Outside Box9
Passing
54%Possession46%
414Total Passes348
336Accurate Passes273
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls6
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs West Ham

West Ham beat Leeds 2-1 in Premier League on September 25, 2021.

Goals: Raphinha (19'), Junior Firpo (67' o.g.), M. Antonio (90').

Leeds controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.