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Leeds vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
M. Klich 6' (pen)
A. Ogbonna 80'
T. Souček 25'
12/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Leeds50%
×Draw24%
West Ham26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.71
West Ham
1.17

Leeds creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.56
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Leeds
1.28
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Leeds-0.12scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
74%
Leeds or West Ham
76%
Draw or West Ham
50%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
27%
West Ham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
82%
Leeds 2+ goals
51%
Leeds 3+ goals
24%
West Ham 1+ goals
69%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
66%
West Ham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.56 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

West Ham attack 1.06 + Leeds defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leeds scores more
50%
level
24%
West Ham scores more
26%

Leeds at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. AylingLeedsLeeds · D
8.0

Match Events

3'
Łukasz Fabiański
4'
Patrick BamfordGoal cancelled
6'
M. KlichPenalty
25'
T. Souček↳ J. Bowen
33'
Ezgjan Alioski
46'
J. Shackleton← E. Alioski
46'
Hélder Costa← J. Harrison
74'
T. Roberts← P. Bamford
80'
A. Ogbonna↳ A. Cresswell
84'
M. Noble← S. Benrahma
85'
B. Johnson← J. Bowen
90'
Mark Noble
90+5'
R. Snodgrass← Pablo Fornals

Possession

64%Leeds

Shots

13Leeds

Pass accuracy

55%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsWest
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots19
5Corners6
12Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots19
7On Target8
5Off Target8
1Blocked3
10Inside Box12
3Outside Box7
Passing
64%Possession36%
544Total Passes296
465Accurate Passes204
85%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Leeds vs West Ham

West Ham beat Leeds 2-1 in Premier League on December 11, 2020.

Goals: M. Klich (6' pen), T. Souček (25'), A. Ogbonna (80').

Leeds controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.