Leeds 3–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

Raphinha 84'

S. Dallas 78'

P. Bamford 47'

2/23/2021

Premier League · Round 18Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leeds52%

×Draw23%

Southampton24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.13

Leeds

1.78

Southampton

1.13

Leeds creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

0.95

1.31

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Leeds

1.57

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Southampton

1.99

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

76%

Leeds or Southampton

77%

Draw or Southampton

48%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

29%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

83%

Leeds 2+ goals

53%

Leeds 3+ goals

26%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

31%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

68%

Southampton (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.78

Southampton attack 0.95 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leeds scores more

52%

level

23%

Southampton scores more

24%

Leeds at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Dallas

Leeds · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

Jannik Vestergaard

33'

Nathan TellaGoal cancelled

46'

Hélder Costa← J. Harrison

47'

P. Bamford↳ T. Roberts

58'

D. Ings← N. Redmond

58'

T. Minamino← N. Tella

59'

E. Alioski← M. Klich

70'

M. Djenepo← Oriol Romeu

75'

Pablo Hernández← T. Roberts

78'

S. Dallas↳ Hélder Costa

83'

Moussa Djenepo

84'

Raphinha

85'

Raphinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsSouthampton

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots13

2Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots13

7On Target5

4Off Target6

0Blocked2

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

319Total Passes365

216Accurate Passes273

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2