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Leeds vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
J. Gelhardt 90+4'
Rodrigo 14'
K. McLean 90+1'
3/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Leeds52%
×Draw24%
Norwich24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.69
Norwich
1.05

Leeds creates 61% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 54 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.34
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Leeds
1.54
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
76%
Leeds or Norwich
76%
Draw or Norwich
48%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
28%
Norwich wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
82%
Leeds 2+ goals
50%
Leeds 3+ goals
24%
Norwich 1+ goals
65%
Norwich 2+ goals
28%
Norwich 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
69%
Norwich (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.34 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Norwich attack 0.56 + Leeds defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leeds scores more
52%
level
24%
Norwich scores more
24%

Leeds at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
RaphinhaLeedsLeeds · M
8.3

Match Events

14'
Rodrigo↳ D. James
26'
Luke Ayling
27'
Luke AylingCard reviewed
46'
J. Harrison← P. Bamford
46'
M. Normann← L. Rupp
52'
Daniel JamesGoal cancelled
60'
R. Koch← Rodrigo
62'
J. Rowe← J. Sargent
71'
Jack Harrison
76'
Milot RashicaPenalty cancelled
77'
Daniel James
77'
Max Aarons
88'
B. Gilmour← M. Aarons
90+2'
J. Gelhardt← M. Klich
90+1'
K. McLean↳ T. Pukki
90+4'
J. Gelhardt↳ Raphinha

Possession

53%Leeds

Shots

13Leeds

Pass accuracy

51%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsNorwich
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots12
6Corners2
18Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots12
7On Target4
5Off Target4
1Blocked4
10Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
421Total Passes382
315Accurate Passes278
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Leeds vs Norwich

Leeds beat Norwich 2-1 in Premier League on March 13, 2022.

Goals: Rodrigo (14'), K. McLean (90+1'), J. Gelhardt (90+4').

Leeds controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.