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Leeds vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
P. Bamford 5' (pen)
12/27/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Leeds56%
×Draw23%
Burnley21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.83
Burnley
1.04

Leeds creates 76% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.56
Burnley
0.79

allows per match

Leeds
1.28
Burnley
2.10

finishing

Leeds-0.12scores less
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
79%
Leeds or Burnley
77%
Draw or Burnley
44%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
32%
Burnley wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
84%
Leeds 2+ goals
54%
Leeds 3+ goals
28%
Burnley 1+ goals
65%
Burnley 2+ goals
28%
Burnley 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
72%
Burnley (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.56 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

Burnley attack 0.79 + Leeds defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leeds scores more
56%
level
23%
Burnley scores more
21%

Leeds at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. MeslierLeedsLeeds · G
8.9

Match Events

5'
P. BamfordPenalty
28'
James Tarkowski
59'
Pablo Hernández← Rodrigo
66'
J. Shackleton← M. Klich
70'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← Raphinha
74'
J. Rodriguez← E. Pieters
74'
D. Stephens← J. Benson
79'
Ashley Westwood
90'
Ashley Barnes

Possession

51%Leeds

Shots

11Leeds

Pass accuracy

51%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsBurnley
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots14
4Corners12
8Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots14
4On Target6
5Off Target4
2Blocked4
6Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
424Total Passes378
315Accurate Passes271
74%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Leeds 1 – 0 Burnley

Leeds beat Burnley 1-0 in Premier League on December 27, 2020.

Goals: P. Bamford (5' pen).

Leeds controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.