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Burnley vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Leeds
Leeds
Rodrigo 79', 77'
J. Harrison 59'
M. Klich 44'
5/15/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley33%
×Draw25%
Leeds43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.34
Leeds
1.57

Leeds creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Leeds
1.21

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Leeds
1.72

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Leeds-0.25scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
57%
Burnley or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
14%
Leeds wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
39%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Leeds 1+ goals
79%
Leeds 2+ goals
46%
Leeds 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
43%
Leeds (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Leeds defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leeds attack 1.21 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more
33%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
43%

Leeds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
J. HarrisonLeedsLeeds · F
8.9

Match Events

44'
M. Klich↳ Raphinha
58'
Rodrigo← P. Bamford
59'
J. Harrison↳ E. Alioski
63'
Kalvin Phillips
65'
Ashley Westwood
65'
J. Rodriguez← M. Vydra
65'
A. Barnes← C. Wood
70'
J. Guðmunds­son← D. McNeil
76'
T. Roberts← M. Klich
77'
Rodrigo↳ J. Harrison
79'
Rodrigo↳ J. Harrison
81'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← Raphinha

Possession

48%Burnley

Shots

16Burnley

Pass accuracy

50%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyLeeds
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots16
6Corners8
10Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots16
4On Target6
8Off Target5
4Blocked5
11Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
418Total Passes440
321Accurate Passes336
77%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides6

Premier League: Burnley 0–4 Leeds

Leeds beat Burnley 4-0 in Premier League on May 15, 2021.

Goals: M. Klich (44'), J. Harrison (59'), Rodrigo (77', 79').

Leeds controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.