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Burnley vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
L. Tchaouna 68'
L. Ugochukwu 18'
10/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley34%
×Draw25%
Leeds41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.39
Leeds
1.55

Leeds creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Leeds
1.17

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Leeds
1.82

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
59%
Burnley or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
66%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
15%
Leeds wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
75%
Burnley 2+ goals
40%
Burnley 3+ goals
16%
Leeds 1+ goals
79%
Leeds 2+ goals
46%
Leeds 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
45%
Leeds (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.39

Leeds attack 1.17 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burnley scores more
34%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
41%

Leeds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Ugochukwu↳ K. Walker
52'
Jaidon Anthony
58'
L. Tchaouna← J. Bruun Larsen
66'
D. James← B. Aaronson
66'
L. Nmecha← J. Harrison
68'
L. Tchaouna↳ Florentino
73'
J. Piroe← A. Stach
77'
J. Laurent← Z. Flemming
81'
A. Tanaka← E. Ampadu
83'
H. Mejbri← L. Ugochukwu
83'
A. Barnes← J. Anthony
90+2'
Hannibal Mejbri
90+2'
Pascal Struijk

Possession

31%Burnley

Shots

4Burnley

Pass accuracy

47%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyLeeds
Overview
31%Possession69%
4Total Shots19
0.45Expected Goals (xG)2.63
1Corners5
10Fouls7
Shots
4Total Shots19
3On Target4
1Off Target12
0Blocked3
1Inside Box17
3Outside Box2
Passing
31%Possession69%
292Total Passes615
221Accurate Passes526
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.79Goals Prevented-0.79
Discipline
10Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Burnley 2 – 0 Leeds

Burnley beat Leeds 2-0 in Premier League on October 18, 2025.

Goals: L. Ugochukwu (18'), L. Tchaouna (68').

Leeds controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.