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Lednické Rovne vs Imeľ — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
0 – 1
Imeľ
Imeľ
8/22/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 3Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne38%
×Draw26%
Imeľ35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.34
Imeľ
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Imeľ
0.68

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Imeľ
1.64

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Imeľ+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Imeľ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
65%
Lednické Rovne or Imeľ
74%
Draw or Imeľ
62%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
17%
Imeľ wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
74%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
39%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
15%
Imeľ 1+ goals
72%
Imeľ 2+ goals
37%
Imeľ 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
52%
Imeľ (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Imeľ away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Imeľ defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Imeľ attack 0.68 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
38%
level
26%
Imeľ scores more
35%

Lednické Rovne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lednické Rovne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lednické Rovne vs Imeľ

Imeľ beat Lednické Rovne 1-0 in 3. liga - West on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.