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Imeľ vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
3/27/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 20Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Imeľ47%
×Draw26%
Lednické Rovne27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.48
Lednické Rovne
1.06

Imeľ creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
73%
Imeľ or Lednické Rovne
74%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
53%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
23%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
77%
Imeľ 2+ goals
43%
Imeľ 3+ goals
19%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
65%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
29%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
63%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Imeľ scores more
47%
level
26%
Lednické Rovne scores more
27%

Imeľ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Imeľ 3–2 Lednické Rovne

Imeľ beat Lednické Rovne 3-2 in 3. liga - West on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ in Imeľ.