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Lednické Rovne vs Galanta — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
CANC
14:30
Galanta
Galanta
5/9/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 24Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne30%
×Draw25%
Galanta45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.26
Galanta
1.60

Galanta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Galanta
1.32

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Galanta
1.48

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Galanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
55%
Lednické Rovne or Galanta
75%
Draw or Galanta
70%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
13%
Galanta wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
72%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
36%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
13%
Galanta 1+ goals
80%
Galanta 2+ goals
47%
Galanta 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
40%
Galanta (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Galanta attack 1.32 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
30%
level
25%
Galanta scores more
45%

Galanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Galanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lednické Rovne host Galanta

May 9, 2021: Lednické Rovne take on Galanta in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lednické Rovne host Galanta at Mestský štadión.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.