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Lednické Rovne vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Častkovce
Častkovce
6/5/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lednické Rovne32%
×Draw24%
Častkovce43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lednické Rovne
1.35
Častkovce
1.60

Častkovce creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lednické Rovne
1.04
Častkovce
1.32

allows per match

Lednické Rovne
1.88
Častkovce
1.66

finishing

Lednické Rovne+0.00on par
Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lednické Rovne ↓

Častkovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lednické Rovne or draw
57%
Lednické Rovne or Častkovce
76%
Draw or Častkovce
68%

Winning margin

Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
14%
Častkovce wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
74%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
39%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
15%
Častkovce 1+ goals
80%
Častkovce 2+ goals
47%
Častkovce 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
43%
Častkovce (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lednické Rovne at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lednické Rovne attack 1.04 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lednické Rovne scores more
32%
level
24%
Častkovce scores more
43%

Častkovce at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lednické Rovne vs Častkovce

Častkovce beat Lednické Rovne 4-2 in 3. liga - West on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lednické Rovne.