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Častkovce vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
CANC
14:30
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
5/16/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Častkovce53%
×Draw23%
Lednické Rovne23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
1.78
Lednické Rovne
1.10

Častkovce creates 62% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
77%
Častkovce or Lednické Rovne
77%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
47%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
30%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
83%
Častkovce 2+ goals
53%
Častkovce 3+ goals
26%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
67%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
30%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
69%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Častkovce scores more
53%
level
23%
Lednické Rovne scores more
23%

Častkovce at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Častkovce face Lednické Rovne (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Častkovce hosting Lednické Rovne. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.